Thursday, November 12, 2009

NY-23 - Did Scozzafava receive Hoffman's votes?

The numbers behind this report on NY-23 vote totals at the Campaign Spot are even more unlikely than Jim Geraghty suggests.
Unless Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman got exactly zero votes in the town of Fenner (Owens got 157, Scozzafava got 248), and at one polling place in the town of Hamilton (Owens got 75, Scozzafava got 79), and at one polling place in the town of Sullivan (Owens got 173, Scozzafava got 251), the initial vote totals look rather hinky.
Outside of the three districts that Geraghty highlights as having odd results, Dede Scozzafava best showing was just 38 votes. If fact, her average votes received outside of these 3 outlier districts was only 12 votes. It is more likely that Scozzafava received zero votes in each of these districts, than Hoffman being shut out.

It is apparent that Scozzafava was credited for Doug Hoffman's votes in these three districts, possibly combined with her own. A conservative estimate of Hoffman's vote totals for Districts Fenner-1, Hamilton-3, and Sullivan-2 is 542 (578 minus (3 times 12)). But it is very likely Hoffman received the full 578 here.

This reduces Bill Owens' newly revised lead of 3,026 to only 2,484 votes with 10,200 absentee ballots to be counted.

If these Oswego County zero vote discrepancies cannot be reconciled, Doug Hoffman deserves to have a complete re-vote for this House seat.

Hat tip - Trog

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