Monday, March 24, 2008


A very interesting statistical analysis of Derrick Turnbow's performance as a reliever at Beyond the Box Score.
Last year Turnbow had a BPIP of 0.94 - giving up less than a base per inning - and had a predicted ERA of 2.07, his real ERA wound up at 4.63, a difference of 2.56. With such a relatively low BPIP I looked into his WHIP numbers, regularly 1.32, with men on, and sure enough found an answer. It seems that Turnbow was a shutdown reliever, until someone get on base, then his WHIP rose to 1.80.
Simple enough to manage a reliever like this, just pull him when a man is on base. And do not dare put Turnbow in to "save" another pitcher's mistakes.

The instincts of the fans were correct. As soon as Turnbow gets behind in the pitch count, I cringe. I feel it is inevitable that he is going to collapse. Not I have statistics that back up my gut.

The Bottom Line: Derrick Turnbow deserves the blame for runs scored when the bases are empty. But Manager Ned Yost gets all the blame for runs scored on Derrick with men on base.

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