The above graph is the result of The Blackboard's statistical analysis
of the recent weather record versus Al Gore's global warming
Diagnosis: Based on this analysis 2 C/century, the central tendency for the trend projected by the IPCC in the AR4, falsifies.
Some details: The distribution shown above was generated by running a simulation of a process in which the “monthly averaged weather noise” is AR(1), with a lag 1 autocorrelation of ρmonth = 0.5044 and variability σ=0.1039 C. The trend was assumed to be 2C/century– which matches the central tendency projected by the IPCC in the AR4.
If that process describes the climate, and weather noise, the observed trend of -0.4 C/century is a result that would happen in fewer than 1 out of 40 events. So, the assumption that the underlying trend is 2C/century falsifies to a confidence level of 95%.
Bottom Line: The probability of our weather since 2001 being
consistent with global warming projections is much, much less