Hard evidence that AGW models are wrong

The above graph is the result of The Blackboard's statistical analysis
of the recent weather record versus Al Gore's global warming
computer models.

Diagnosis: Based on this analysis 2 C/century, the central tendency for the trend projected by the IPCC in the AR4, falsifies.

Some details: The distribution shown above was generated by running a simulation of a process in which the “monthly averaged weather noise” is AR(1), with a lag 1 autocorrelation of ρ_month = 0.5044 and variability σ=0.1039 C. The trend was assumed to be 2C/century– which matches the central tendency projected by the IPCC in the AR4.

If that process describes the climate, and weather noise, the observed trend of -0.4 C/century is a result that would happen in fewer than 1 out of 40 events. So, the assumption that the underlying trend is 2C/century falsifies to a confidence level of 95%.

Bottom Line:  The probability of our weather since 2001 being
consistent with global warming projections is much, much less
than 2.5%.